An El Nino is a short term change in the climate of the Pacific ocean, close to the equator. You can see its effects in both the ocean and atmosphere, generally in Northern Hemisphere winter. Typically, the ocean surface warms up by a few degrees Celsius. At the same time, the place where hefty thunderstorms occur on the equator moves eastward. Although those might seem like small differences, it nevertheless can have big effects on the world's climate. Those tiny changes in temperature in the Pacific ocean create sometimes big problems for people all over the world.
In the event of an El Nino, Jacksonville would be affected in several ways. Being on the coast of Florida, the city is a center for commercial and sport fishing, both of which would be impacted; weather patterns over Jacksonville would be affected by El Nino-inspired anomalies; and the regions vegetation, intricately connected to the weather, also would be altered.
Commercial and sport fishing constitute a valuable source of income for the city. Retail outlets catering to sport fisherman rake in millions of dollars each year. In an El Nino year the local shrimp population would be reduced. Most sport fisherman I know of use shrimp as bait. No shrimp, no bait. No bait, no fish. No fish, no sport fisherman. In that ideal, the human population is affected as well. An El Nino would also affect the behavior of fish, such as their feeding patterns – potentially in an adverse way, threatening this particular sector of the economy. Additionally, the commercial fishing industry – the harvesting of sea life such as shrimp, tuna, clams, oysters, etc. – would be affected by these conditions as well. Entire fleets could be rendered useless as tuna change their migratory patters, shrimp alter their behavior, clams and oysters experience a population reduction, or any number of other effects.
The impact of an El Nino on the First Coast would be characterized by severe changes in the usual weather patterns. This years weather is an example of that. December has seen some of the hottest temperatures in Jacksonville’s history. Our normal highs are ten degrees below our actual highs and our low temperatures are experiencing the same type of phenomenon. The First Coast’s rainfall has been scarce this year and we have yet to have a good long rain. Prolonged dry spells – affecting the city’s water supply, rainfall, farming operations in the region, and perhaps resulting in deaths – are the most prominent of these changes. Many of these are readily observable in light of the current El Nino anomaly.
Vegetation could be affected in two possible ways: those plants that thrive in dry climates yet survive in the typically wet First Coast region would experience a dramatic growth in population, and those plants that are ideally suited to a wet climate would experience a dramatic reduction – the former would likely overwhelm the latter. Certain crops raised in the area could very well fail. The First Coast area is home to tomato growers and their crops. In the event of an El Nino the tomato farmers would not have enough rainfall to even barely brush the tops off the needs of their plants. In that case, the farmers would have to look for another source to channel water from. In most cases that source becomes groundwater. Most farmers lose everything if they lose that years crop, so they drain more and more of the groundwater until there is nothing left. While filling their needs, the farmers take away water from the human and non-human population. Without an adequate water supply, civilizations die; thus majorly affecting the First Coast.