<Spectator> 10 AM options Expiry coming up
<Tulkas> the only way currencies can move this violently is with central bank intervention, most likely the diversification menioned earlier
<Tulkas> I would think they have specific targets
<kady63> yep
<kady63> and we cant compete with them
<Tulkas> our job to follow
<kady63> when this chf breaks 2360..its outta here
<kady63> and the eur will go short
<Tulkas> agree, kady, but we need to keep an eye on gold
<kady63> yes
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<moderator> the other factor is the raging u.s. bonds right now
<JakeInAfrica> This is the 1st time in my "illustrious" trading career that I see price action like today and yesterday
<Spectator> And we sit at resistance
<Spectator> Gonna be wild here in about 10 minutes
<tompat> gold 6.00
<kady63> I have seen it before..yuck
<befr> Mod please explain the effect of bonds
<tompat> thats off 6.00
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<Tulkas> it's hard for me to pull out to daily/weekly and take it into consideration
<Spectator> Bonds have inverse relationship to the stock market...when market drops bond yields go up.
<moderator> ok as bond yields have risen, i think global investors have sold off their more riskier assests are have brought cash back into the USD as a more safe haven
<Spectator> What he said he hee
<autolox> because after all - Cash is a position too.....
<moderator> rising bonds is like a signal to aggressive asset holders that global inflation is going up, equities are going down, and its time to jump ship and park their money back in the US
<tompat> Dow up 29.00
<kady63> thanks for that info mod
<Tulkas> US bonds=safe haven
<Tulkas> I think there is a point where we look too closely, too
<moderator> now, all those aggressive assest holder are going to have to start paying back loans they took with cash borrowed in Yen and Francs
<RickFX> hello all
<moderator> and to pay back those loans, where do you think they are going to get the cash at?
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<autolox> USD?
<Tulkas> say what you want, Auto's MMs line on larger compressions do an excellent job of providing targets/key lovels
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<moderator> the will borrow more yen and more francs, thus causing an "unwind"
<Tulkas> levels
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<kady63> what are auto's levels?
* autolox bows to tulkas in agreement
<Tulkas> Murray Math lines
<befr> thanks Mod
<Blunt> mod please explain unwind
<moderator> so even though we've seen the dollar gain on the yen, this really could be the first signal of a true unwind of carry trading
* autolox seems to remember tulkas showin' them to autolox some time ago....
<RickFX> I missed most of the explain ... I have 1 questions ... have we seen the bottom
<Tulkas> we did MMs together, bro
<Lasek88> will this unwind be confirmed when USD/JPY starts to take a tumble?
<moderator> those aggressive assest holders have borrowed heavy with yen and francs, and have invested in risky equities on global markets, now that these markets are crashing, they are jumping ship and returning to the USD and US Bonds as a safe haven
<moderator> but the time is either here now or is coming soon that they will have to pay back the loans they took on their yen and francs
<Tulkas> crazy stuff, Mod
<RickFX> wow
<RickFX> totally crazy stuff
<decca> ok .. this is interesting, as the way i understand it, bond yields go up as the face value of the bonds goes down
<Blunt> thanks mod
<autolox> USD/JPY up makes JPY worth less - which makes it a better borrow currency - at the top of the run - then when it tanks - JPY became worth more than when they borrowed it....
<decca> so a lack of demand for bonds increases the yield
<moderator> but these folks can't borrow from high interest rate currencies so they will return to the yen and franc to cover debts, which will strengthen the yen and franc and cause havoc in the currency market
<JakeInAfrica> Another currency crisis?
<Tulkas> cycles of crises!
<JakeInAfrica> oh crises
<moderator> i'm not making any predictions, i'm saying what i think i'm seeing this morning
<Tulkas> not to be cornfused with "crikey"!
<JakeInAfrica> or corn
<Tulkas> nothin gets past you Jake
<JakeInAfrica> :-)
<north49canuck2> This is like using one credit card to pay another..
<JakeInAfrica> nice analogy north
<moderator> the other thing is, higher bond yields are a signal of higher us inflation, which is a signal that the fed could raise rates, which can cause heavy USD buying
<JakeInAfrica> brb..gonna fetch the little lady
<Lasek88> mod, any plans for a EUR/USD sell signal?
<RickFX> wow ... that is pretty heavy for first thing in the morning
<moderator> not sure what you mean by any plans
<RickFX> thanks mod
* JakeInAfrica is away:
<RickFX> got to go for now be back in a while
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<Lasek88> well there is a eur/usd buy signal. just wondering if there would be a sell signal also, like you have a usd/jpy signal for buys and sells
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<autolox> moderator: he probably meant - any development plans for a EUR/$ sell signal?
<moderator> haven't heard anything about that from cisco